For the past couple of years I’ve been following closely the words and ideas of Peak Oil guru Matthew Simmons. Simmons is a conservative energy analyst who, after taking a close look at the available data, has concluded that Peak Oil is upon us. Simmons is so convinced by his own analysis that, in his own words, he’s "betting his career on it".

One of his principal lines of attack is the lack of transparency in world energy data. According the Simmons, much of the data on world energy supplies remains classified, or so cryptically encoded within mountains of corporate and bureaucratic paperwork that it is rendered almost undecipherable. Simmons notes that he was shocked to find that nobody had ever listed the top 20 oil fields by name; 120 fields, he states, produce 50% of the world’s oil supply.

The top 14 fields are are on average 53 years old. As a field ages, well pressure declines, making rapid crude extraction a more difficult proposition. The Saudis, under pressure to placate the insatiable American appetite for cheap, abundant oil, pump between 15 and 18 million gallons of water a day into their wells to extract 8 million barrels of crude. In Simmons’ words:

This is not sustainable. Geologically speaking, the faster you produce a highly pressurized reservoir, the faster the reservoir pressure collapses. Conversely, the more gently you produce the field, the longer you can produce it at a steady rate, and the higher amount of oil you get out of the field.

More provocative still is Simmons’ "Royal Family" theory. Historical data indicate large oil discoveries follow an amazingly consistent pattern. Within five years of prospecting, the queen is discovered (the second largest), followed by the king, and then over the next decade about 8 to 10 lords. Once the royal family has been discovered, the remaining deposits are negligible in size. According to Simmons, all the royal families have already been discovered, and the vast majority have reached maturity. In other word, Peak Oil. Simmons predicts triple digit oil prices within the next 10 years.

So what is the energy gap? If Simmons is correct, then the age of abundant fossil fuel supply has suddenly, unexpectedly, reached its twilight years. The energy gap is the transition period from a carbon based, fossil fuel economy to a carbon neutral, renewable energy economy.

The energy gap is of utmost concern to anybody who believes in the Simmons theory of Peak Oil. Oil is responsible for much more than transportation. It provides us with food, plastics, electricity, and military capacity. If we are unable to close the energy gap quickly enough, then the transition will be a period of tremendous uncertainty, with the potential for resource wars and the collapse of fringe societies.

What’s more, Simmons does not address the very real crisis of climate change, which is directly associated with the burning of carbon-based fossil fuels. In the absence of viable, clean alternatives, coal and natural gas will become our poison of choice, thereby accelerating the global warming process, which will create a very uncertain transition. Brace yourselves, we’ve already entered the energy gap.