For the farmer, the transition to organic is one of the most risk-prone and unpredictable times in an already turbulent industry. Candace Page of the Free Press has written an excellent article about organic milk farmer Earl Fournier’s transition from a conventional to an organic dairy farm. From a farmer’s point of view, the switch to organic must be justified by an increase in profitability over the long term.

Fournier saw a tripling in annual profits after switching to organic. A study conducted by the universities of Vermont and Maine would indicate that he is in the minority; of 30 organic dairies surveyed, two-thirds failed to make a profit.

Although the organic market is growing at an annual clip of 20%, such growth doesn’t guarantee success for agricultural entrepreneurs eager to take their slice of the pie.

The full picture comes into view when we take into account the dramatic changes a farmer must make to qualify for USDA Organic certification. No more milk and growth enhancing hormones, no more feedlots, no more herbicides or antibiotics. Most farmers, after eliminating these agrochemicals, experience immediate declines in yield.

The farmer, moreover, must relearn his profession. Where chemicals and hormones were once the easy path to a plentiful harvest, now the farmer must rely on mindful management of pastures, reproduction, and grazing regimes. Organic farming requires more skill and know-how; just ask those 20 some organic farmers in Vermont and Maine.

Make no mistake, the exponential growth of the organic market is good thing for consumers and the environment. As for the benefits to the small farmer…it would seem that the jury is still out on that one. The growing market share indicates that consumers are becoming more willing to pay for the real value of food. Industrial agriculture has maintained artificially low price ceilings by externalizing a number of risk factors: fossil-fuel costs, market fluctuations, and over-production, to name a few. These externalized risks are ultimately paid by the consumer in the form of taxes, fuel prices, and insurance premiums, rather than at the supermarket.

The NOP standards allowance for the subversion of the organic ideal by mega-corporations like Wal-Mart will determine the fate of the small organic farmer now and in the future. In the meantime, consumers should make the transition for the smaller farmers a little easier: buy local, buy from cooperatives, and if your budget permits, buy organic.